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Surprising Poll Puts Paladino Within Six Points of Perceived Frontrunner Cuomo

September 22, 2010

Buffalo businessman and gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino

All I could say was “wow” when I saw this:

ALBANY – A stunning new poll this morning shows Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo holding a mere six point lead over bomb throwing Buffalo businessman Carl Paladino in what until now has been Cuomo’s runaway race for governor.

The startling Quinnipiac University survey of likely voters showed Cuomo ahead of Republican Paladino by 49-43 percent, a far cry from the 60-23 percent lead he held in a Quinnipiac poll of registered – but not necessarily likely – voters released Sept. 1.

Since the poll’s margin of error is plus- or minus-3.6 percent, the findings – if accurate — mean the race between the popular and well-known attorney general and the little-known but highly controversial, Tea Party-linked, Paladino could be a dead heat.

The new poll did not ask voters if they backed Conservative Party candidate Rick Lazio, even though he’s expected to be on the November 2 ballot draining votes from Paladino, who defeated him in last week’s GOP primary.

The new poll found Paladino leading Cuomo among Tea Party backers by a whopping 4-1 margin.

While just 18 percent of likely voters consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, they supported Paladino 77 – 18 percent.

Cuomo led among Democrats, 87-8 percent, while Paladino was ahead among Republicans, 83-13 percent.

The crucial difference appeared to be among self-styled independent voters, who picked Paladino over Cuomo, 49-43 percent.

Women backed Cuomo, 54 – 34 percent, while a plurality of men, 49 percent, backed Paladino compared to 46 percent for Cuomo.

“The question was whether Carl Paladino would get a bounce from his big Republican primary victory,” said Quinnipiac polling director Maurice Carroll.

“The answer is yes. He’s within shouting distance and – you can count on it – he will be shouting,” Carroll continued.

Carroll said Quinnipiac’s switch to “likely voters” in the new poll may have produced stronger numbers for Paladino since in recent months conservative voters have tended to be more “energized.”

Meanwhile, the poll found voters approving Cuomo’s job performance as attorney general by a lopsided, 67 – 25 percent, and, by 51 – 34 percent, said they have a favorable opinion of him.

Paladino received a 36 – 31 percent favorability rating while 31 percent of voters don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

“Cuomo might be a victim of his own excess(sic),” said Carroll.

“Politicians and polls have depicted him so relentlessly as a sure thing that he might be a victim of the ‘throw the bums out’ attitude that hits incumbents in this angry year,” he continued.

The poll asked voters which quality mattered most in picking a new governor and 41 percent said they wanted a candidate who “can bring about needed change to Albany.”

Another 22 percent chose someone who they believed shared their values, while 21 percent wanted someone honest and trustworthy and 10 percent wanted someone with the right experience.

“There’s a Paladino plus: Forty percent of New Yorkers say the most important trait in a candidate is that he’ll ‘bring change,’” Carroll said. “But there’s a Paladino minus when we ask about the Tea Party. Only 18 percent of voters identify with it.”


From The New York Post…

  1. Fabian permalink
    September 22, 2010 10:34 pm

    Paladino is an absolute nut job.

  2. Craig Eaton stays up late reads ASIB, comments and is haunted by the Cat People permalink
    September 23, 2010 12:11 am

    When Eaton reads Atlas Shrugs in Brooklyn late at night, well after midnight, what does he think about?

    Not Paladino, not Potter, not Arnaldo, not even Jonathan…

    He thinks about “THE TIGER”

    Come on, let’s every body sing!

    Where’s that Tiger? Where’s that Tiger? Where’s that Tiger? Where’s that Tiger? Where can that Tiger be?

    Princeton Tiger, Clemson Tiger, Auburn Tiger, Oh, so many tigers!

    Woodsy Tiger and Tony Tiger, figher Dick Tiger, F-10 Grumman Tiger, Tigger Tiger, Jungle Book Tiger, all Kipling tigers, Detroit Tigers…, Just, to many tigers!

    Hold those TIGERS! Whoa, hold those TIGERS! Oops, hold them TIGERS, Ouch, them angry TIGERS! Somebody, cage these TIGERS!

    But, where’s the real tiger? Can’t find the real tiger. We’ve lost the real tiger. Where can that really real tiger be? Who can that really real tiger be?

    Oh, gosh that really real tiger is really coming after me!!!!!

  3. There are many competitive Republican candidates running in Brooklyn and Eaton's Brooklyn GOP has nothing to do with any of them permalink
    September 24, 2010 9:17 pm

    This reporter was having some brew and Kettle Black Wings with a Queens Republican activist from Rockaway. The man said yesterday he’d talked to Tom Long, Queens County Conservative Leader, and that everybody was very happy at where things stood right now with the Turner-Weiner race.

    We specifically talked about the Brooklyn GOP contribution to the Turner candidacy. When I asked the Rockaway guy about the Brooklyn GOP, the fellow said he’d specifically spoken to Eaton about the race a while back and the Brooklyn GOP leader seemed less than keenly interested. “All I remember Eaton saying was, ‘That race is really up to Queens, and whatever they do is fine with us’.”

    Right now, the most active Brooklyn Republican activity for Turner is coming from Republican Assembly Candidate Joseph Hayon.

  4. Do Paladino, DioGuardi, Grimm and Turner even know who Craig Eaton might be? permalink
    September 24, 2010 9:26 pm

    Why does Chairman Eaton and his Brooklyn Party organization matter now that we have several real campaigns to work for in Brooklyn?

    Do any of these candidates care about Eaton and “his people”?

  5. Suddenly, Diane Savino Pipes Up to Attack Don Carlo for Being anit-Italian permalink
    September 25, 2010 9:59 pm

    State Senator Diane Savino got in a few free wacks at our Republican candidate for Governor.

    Where was the local counter-attack?

    Who’s the Republican candidate against Diane Savino?

    Who are the Republican Leaders in Savino’s district?

    Bueller?……. Bueller?…….Bueller?

    night sounds….. noise of jet plane in the distance…..

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