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Rasmussen: Republicans Lead Dems in Generic Congressional Ballot

August 2, 2010

The infamous turn in the tide that political forecasters have been warning us aout just might be coming, if things remain as they are. This from Rasmussen:

Republican candidates hold an eight-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, August 1, 2010.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 46% of Likely Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.  Support for Republicans held steady from last week, while support for Democrats inched up two points.


Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans back their party’s candidate, while 78% of Democrats support the candidate of their party.  Voters not affiliated with either party prefer the Republican candidate by a nearly two-to-one margin.

The number of Republicans in the United States slipped a point during July, while the number of unaffiliated voters gained a point. Overall, the numbers signal a high level of stability as there have been only modest shifts throughout 2010.

Republicans have led on the Generic Ballot since mid-June 2009, and their lead hasn’t fallen below five points since the beginning of December.  Three times this year, they’ve posted a 10-point lead. However, the results were much different during the last two election cycles when Democrats regularly had large advantages.

When President Obama was inaugurated in January 2009, Democrats enjoyed a seven-point advantage on the Generic Ballot. The two parties were very close through the spring of 2009, but in June, around the time Democrats began their campaign for health care reform, Republicans pulled ahead for good.

GOP candidates started 2010 ahead by nine points.  Since the first of the year, Republicans have earned between 43% and 47% of the vote, while Democratic support has ranged from 35% to 39%.

For the first time since Obama took office, voters see his policies as equally to blame with those of President George W. Bush for the country’s current economic problems.

Confidence that the economy will improve in the short term has slipped to its lowest level in well over a year. Americans are evenly divided over whether anyone who wants to work can still find a job in the United States.

Forty-four percent (44%) expect their taxes to increase under Obama. At the same time, the number of voters who view the issue of Taxes as Very Important has jumped 10 points from May to its highest level ever in Rasmussen Reports tracking.

Only 28% of voters believe increased government spending is good for the economy.

Voter pessimism towards the new national health care bill has reached an all-time high, while the number of insured voters who feel it will force them to switch their coverage is up 11 points from early last month. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of all voters favor repeal of the health care bill, while 38% oppose repeal.

Despite a judge’s ruling putting key provisions of Arizona’s new immigration law on hold, most voters still favor passage of such a law in their own state. They also think it’s better to have states enforce immigration law rather than to rely on the federal government.

Fifty-four percent (54%) say the U.S. Justice Department should take legal action against cities that provide sanctuary for illegal immigrants. Even more think the federal government should cut off funds to these “sanctuary cities.”

Support for the building of a fence along the Mexican border has reached a new high, and voters are more confident than ever that illegal immigration can be stopped.

The Senate appears to be just days away from confirming Elena Kagan to the U.S. Supreme Court, but voters still have mixed feelings about whether the president’s second nominee to the high court should be approved.

BP has replaced its CEO as fallout from the massive oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico continues, but 42% believe the government would have done a worse job responding to the leak if it has been in charge of the oil company.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters feel finding new sources of energy is more important now than reducing the amount of energy Americans now consume. That’s the highest number measured since March of 2009.

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Be sure to visit Rasmussen daily. Click here to view more.

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3 Comments
  1. Michael Allegretti is anything but a "Generic Republican" permalink
    August 3, 2010 9:27 am

    This bodes very well for Michael Grimm a 4-square conservative Republican-Conservative.

    Allegretti is being tarred with his “progressive” tax the nation to death energy policies, where he’s further in front of the Obama “dead for this year” energy plan than even Democratic incumbent Michael McMahon.

    More to come… is Allegretti winning the war of lawn signs? Maybe…but it’s strange where you don’t see them.

  2. SI-NDConservative permalink
    August 3, 2010 1:45 pm

    The “War of the Lawn Signs” isn’t even close on Staten Island. Grimm has an army of signs, Allegretti just has some rouge mercenaries, usually stuck illegally on City property.

  3. Young Republican permalink
    August 3, 2010 4:40 pm

    This is true nation-wide, but how about in New York? Or how about in Brooklyn? Rep. Clark in the 11th district won reelection in ’08 with over 90%, what will it be this year?

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