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Senate Shake-Up: New York and Elsewhere

November 21, 2009

With the 2010 election watch in full swing, Atlas will be informing you on the various races to watch, both locally and for the party at large.

Most recently, Rasmussen has a piece by Larry Sabato that is very much worth reading.

Here is his conclusion: Democrats will almost certainly retain control of the Senate.

Here is his analysis:

Some bloggers aside, few of the top analysts on the Republican side question this conclusion. The GOP’s real hope is to cut the Democratic margin by a few seats, so that they can regain the power to stop legislation (assuming they stick together–a giant “if”).

And this will be a significant development, should it happen. As we can already see, Senate Democrats can have difficulty passing major legislation even with 60 seats. There are some moderate Democrats who can easily defect, such as Sens. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Evan Bayh (D-IN), Mary Landrieu (D-LA), and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR). In addition, Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats, is probably best described as a Republocrat. (So ironic, isn’t it, given his vice presidential bid on Al Gore’s 2000 ticket.)

Remember, any 2010 analysis must start with the seats not up in 2010. The Democrats will automatically retain 41 seats and Republicans 21–that is, these 62 seats aren’t on the 2010 ballot. Given Vice President Biden’s tie-breaking vote, Democrats need to win a mere 9 seats in 2010 to retain control, and just to begin with, they have 10 reasonably secure incumbents on the ballot. By contrast, the Republicans would have to win 30 seats to take the Senate, which would require holding all their own seats plus capturing 11 currently Democratic seats.

Let’s get real. That’s not going to happen unless there is a complete collapse on the Democratic side.

The election results in 2010 will add seats to each column. Democrats and Republicans have an equal number of seats up in 2010 (19 Democratic, 19 Republican). This gives the Democrats a large head start in retaining controlsince, in order to take the chamber, the GOP would have to sweep every competitive contest and make some currently uncompetitive races into major upsets.

The following chart gives you some sense of the big Senate picture for 2010. Where are the Republicans likely to make their stand, and possibly score gains?


More developments as they come. Stick with Atlas!

  1. Wag-the-Dog permalink
    November 21, 2009 2:04 pm

    It is intersting that the Kirsten Gillibrand (Democrat of Republican heritage) seat is considered a “likely” hold for the Democrats by Sabato/Rasmussen. What does that say about the RNC’s view of the state GOP in New York?

    No matter! The “Wag-the Dog” scenario now being whispered around Albany (and probably Brooklyn) is that Mike Long, his Conservative Party and his kept-on-short-leash Republican factotums will lead the charge in THIS 2010 “Last Hurrah” year for the New York GOP. That’s right, it will be New York 23rd writ large on a statewide canvass.

    You’ve seen the early part of this played-out already: Act One —“It’s only Doug Hoffman or the Democrat” in NY-23 (Mike Long Conservative Party State Cairman from Brooklyn was far more important in that GOP Adirondack redoubt than more than a dozen Republican apple-knocker-county leaders and various “let’s call them moderate” elected Republican officials) ; Act Two — Rudy Giuliani, with “nothing important” to say to Mike Long and the Conservatives, shown the early door (and given the “Bum’s rush”) for his tepid interest in a run for Governor (Craig Eaton, get with the program— next time, call your Bay Ridge neighbor and “friend” Mike Long before you have any, dare I say it, “ideas” about what to do in the political big leagues); yet to come, the climactic Act Three (the real big enchilada) regaining the New York State Senate in the 2010 in advance of reapportionment— on this one, it’s Mike’s way or the highway.

    There is also a local component, let’s call it the “Inter-act after 2009.” First, Craig Eaton will be told to fix things with the 49th AD—fast, before it interferes with the rest of Act Three. I think something like Arnaldo Ferraro, as Vice Chairman—“or its equivelent.” ( Remember Craig, you heard/read it here first; don’t feel bad, Vice Chair is better than “Co-Chair”). Second, the McMahon (13th CD ) seat will probably stay the McMahon seat [what’s really at stake in 2010 is bigger than one– very respectful of his Conservative Party County Leader Blue-Dog Democrat’s– congressional seat.

    Hang by your thumbs— and I’ll write if I find work,

  2. Young Republican permalink
    November 22, 2009 1:19 am

    Rudy Giuliani is not likely to get the Conservative Party nomination for US Senate, after all he is a moderate to liberal on a lot of issues. If anything he might get the Liberal Party’s nomination (if they’re still a party).

    The Conservative Party does not “owe” our party anything, and we shouldn’t feel like we owe them anything. It is our job to convince a majority of the electorate that our candidate will represent them best. In many races it would be beneficial to have the CP cross-endorse our candidate, and sometimes we should even take their preference in to account when nominating candidates, but we should never let ourselves be taken “hostage” by any other party. There are many races where are candidate would possibly lose votes if they had the CP nomination. (However, it might be helpful to remember that no republican has won state wide office in recent history without the CP endorsement.)

    • Wag-the-Dog permalink
      November 22, 2009 12:25 pm

      I don’t disagree with commentator,Young Republican, but the point I was making, which might have been missed, is as follows:

      A)That the cabal of Conservative Party insiders(basically Mike Long)and Republican insiders (mostly state senators) really only see control of the New York State Senate as the sine quo non strategic objective in 2010 [****This means everything else can be traded-off or sacrificed];

      B)Governor, U.S. Senator, congressional seats, other statewide races and gains in the assembly might be possible and even desirable in 2010, especially in light of the possible rising Republican tide, but only if the Conservatives approve the candidate, and only as long as goal “A” above is not jeopardized.

      There is a little more to it, of course— but this dynamic is in place and being carried out, right now.

      Locally, it means that nothing, “NOTHING” can jeopardize an easy run for Brooklyn’s only elected Republican— ie., no primary threats and no strong Democratic challenger for State Senator Golden. The fight with the 49th AD Republicns threatens the former, and Independent Republican challengers to State Senators Sorvino and Krueger threaten the latter. That’s why “The Duke” (Craig Eaton not the old NFL football)certainly will be forced to make deals with the 49th ADs’ Ferrarotistas and possibly the rest of the Independent/Reformist Republicans here in Brooklyn.

      Wag-the Dog details about the 9th Conressional District some time soon.

      Still hanging–without work,

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